This post and the time references are in response to:
Starting At 2:40: China selling technology in the Middle East, foreshadowing, they buy a lot of technology there as well.
The draw down in Yemen, is mostly a result of On 10 November 2018, the US announced it would no longer refuel coalition aircraft operating over Yemen. Which occurred as a result of Jamal Khashoggi’s murder. So that legacy lives in and will continue to in other ways.
At 4:45 Susan Koelbl suggests that a good relationship with saudi arabia is very important, only because she does not seem to have a solid grasp of the current dynamics of the region.
And at 5:55 she suggests the JCPOA would not be revived, which is a dramatically strange thing to say, so it seems at this point she has chosen the role of conversational bomb thrower, which will be noticed by the reactions by Tyson Barker or which make it kind of funny to watch her steelman the most uninformed positions, it almost feels like to offend me enough to write this.
That is why this articled is titled “new alliances in troubled times, is it ‘anything goes’ for Deutsche Welle ?
She does make a good point at 5:10, there isn’t much saudi arabia can do to change their output because much of the oil crunch is not just refining capacity reduced because all refineries are on coast lines, which are also where most climate change happens, as well as many sanction regimes and governmental collapses.
And at 5:22 she points out that OPEC does primarily decide these things, which actually leaves open a new route for economic cooperation in the region.
Ulrike Hermann makes a very interesting observation about the relationship between Russia and Iran at 6:06. and at 6:30 I think she starts to piece together what it means that Iran was selling drones to Russia in exchange for oil, while they were fighting Turkish drones in Ukraine.
While Susan makes a good point at 10:38 about the relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia, they also have a large relationship with the CCP for oil, and a large part of the problems across the entire global, are a result of the relationships between Saudi Arabia, the CCP and Isreal. Primarily in their “cooperation” in counter terrorism, which the CCP leverages to go after their opponents internationally, (and steal intellectual property) including in the US. Which is also a large driver of how the NSO group got blacklisted https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/03/business/nso-group-spyware-blacklist.html
as well as a significant amount of the push in dealing with both Israel and Iran bypassing US technology sanctions on the CCP. So in reality, the US recently broke the stranglehold among the various deep states on counter terrorism, and turkey has been angling to be the new center of that orbit in the region, while both Israel and Saudi Arabia are in very weakened positions, both being entirely dependent on the US for every form of security, both internally and externally.
Russia is aware of this and it is why they have been trying to pull turkey from the European orbit, but the Turks know some things that might not be as apparent to the Saudis, though ego stroking is certainly not what Biden needed to do in that relationship. Which is noted in the reduction in bombings in Yemen. Which is why I have no problem telling the Turks, that even now and to this day, the US has done more for human rights in the Middle East, than any of it’s partners.
And this is why I, and Tyson, were both quite surprised when at 11:12 Susan said that chapter is closed. The consequences of that are still seen in warzones today, and that was apparent from the look on tysons face, though he had difficulty putting it into words.
As for the question about Bidens promised strategy at 12:05, and this says noting of Ulrike’s response, I think it would be smart to keep in mind that according to sun tsu, all war is deception.
Biden showed that the Americans can still show up in the flesh, instead of just sending killer robots, and more importantly, unlike the rhetoric of the CCP’s information bubbles, and the unseen principle behind russia’s actions with Turkey and Iran, is the knowledge that there has been a substantial if imperceptible shift in both US and NATO which is bringing renewed attention from the largest security force in the world, into their region, while not so subtly reminding them that china may be dependent on africa and the middle east for resources, Especially food and fuel, the same is not true for the US. And possibly more importantly, it’s the US as well as UN aid agencies, which prevent their countries from descending into total chaos at any given time, sometimes unsuccessfully, but is in fact, the only country in the world, with a success record at all.
Or as put so elegantly by Immortal Technique, America is still king of the world, and uncle sam lets MBS play one in the sandbox. (Content warning, Explicit language) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocAdlGi1m6w
Russia sees this however, and has been angling to form some type of OPEC knockoff with the various sovereign wealth oil organizations, to include Turkey and Iran, in an attempt to get some form of sanctions relief, knowing that would drive down the oil prices much further than anything saudi arabia would do, while it is getting rich off of the CCPs limited options. My guess is that such a new oil cartel would only be possible if it were to be anointed by the EU via participation in some carbon tax program. Thus leaving the CCP and MBS in an interesting relationship while other oil capacity which includes much of the refining, is rescued by EU investment in their infrastructures by a new climate concious oil cartel, otherwise, they can always try fighting the killer robots, which the russians are attempting to out maneuver via trade instead of taking on directly, by having a better understanding of the dynamics of the economics of the middle east, than Susan here.
Ulrike sort of tangentially hits on that at 12:45.
as for the question at 13:40, if this trip to the middle east was for the US Citizens to see, and I would say, it was more for the leadership in the middle east to see. Do you think DW would be talking about this in detail, if biden did not go there? They certainly didn’t say anything of deep significance at the meeting. But they would have been insulted if he did not show.
Ulrike does make an interesting point about Russia getting drones from Iran at 17:35, which is an interesting dynamic compared with their relationship with Turkey. But more importantly, I think it suggests that Russia is making quite a mint reselling Iranian oil to China due to the sanctions and prefers that trade of drones for oil, which would in turn freeze the Ukrainian conflict as they switch from an armor based strategy to a drone based strategy for entrenching positions, as they have already captured most of the areas of ukraine that they wanted to capture, the oil rich northeast of ukraine. But Ukraine see that as a big part of their economic future, and is unlikely to be willing to sacrifice those areas to Russia.
At 19:45 it’s asked if the sanctions are hurting the west more than Russia, and if the US “forgot to put it’s economy on a war footing” to which I would like to reply, the US is not at war with anyone. There is no reason for the US economy to be on a “war footing” and the current destabilization occurring globally have actually very little to do with US sanctions. And in fact it can be demonstrably shown, they are very often the result of the ineptitude of the CCP and it’s grasping extended beyond their reach. Across Africa, CCP hydropower projects have disrupted water supplies, (such as between Egypt and Ethiopia https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-50328647 ) triggered water conflicts and resulted in man-made droughts in smaller projects trying to maximize electricity generation and ignoring seasonal cycles. The same thing occurred in china itself, but resulted in massive property loss due to flooding, this resulted in a property bubble collapsing because of the vast amount of real estate which was suddenly worthless due to water damage. When combined with the out of control Covid policies, has resulted in the not so silent implosion of the Chinese economy, which the west has invested in heavily, the failure of those investments, is what is causing the high prices, combined with the economic seizures occurring from the supply chain reorganizations from the CCPs covid policies, and sometimes, only in the areas of technology and fuel, do sanctions have any impact at all. The vast majority of this is not the result of the US, or the sanctions. So why would the US be trumpeting to everyone to be on a war economy ? Unlike the CCP, the US does not regard everyone who is not a US citizen as an enemy. So for the US, it would not, and still does not, make sense to put the economy on a “war footing” when we are not at war with anyone. Though I am sure due to climate change, which is driven in large part, the unsustainable development in Africa by the Chinese with particularly polluting technologies, mostly to give themselves cover in the UN, is once again, monopolizing the problems and then through some deft propaganda, the only thing they seem to do correctly, probably because of Russian tutelage, place the blame on the US, and Biden, who could barely even manage harsh words for a room full of human rights violators. But hey, at least unlike Susan here, wouldn’t call the chapter on Jamal closed, but was the opening of a new chapter on US engagement in the Middle East, without the warmongering rhetoric of the authoritarians who cannot imagine a future beyond vague platitudes.
But that might be getting off-topic, so at 21:48 Ulrike says “it’s obvious what we need to do, save energy” and to that I would say, actually, I think it means Germany will need to reassess its policy to close its three remaining nuclear power reactors and put being energy efficient and off of Russian gas as a higher priority than closing nuclear, and even reducing oil dependence should be ranked higher than reducing coal dependence, because there are technologies for carbon-neutral coal on the horizon. Which is not something that is possible with Russian gas, and keep in mind that gas is a limited resource and from now on, will only get more expensive because of climate change, and that should be a signal, to reduce the electrical grid dependency on gas, that is the most guaranteed way to reduce the price of gas for the drivers. By switching the electrical grid to new green energies like Hydrogen, battery storage, wind, solar, and most importantly for baseload power, nuclear.
That is the fastest and most long term sustainable plan to reduce gas prices. Not by simply telling people to not use energy, not go anywhere and not do anything.
As Tyson says at 24:20 “we should not be afraid of our own shadow”
so, we have to give Biden a break, because he has been doing this since before cameras were invented.
so I think he moves surprisingly fast for a man of his age. So fast that sometimes you get a bit of word salad. Just be glad he hasn’t started growing out his beard again.
